RES coverage ratio, regional energy balance
214% seems like the number to watch. I'd say 99% is more interesting right now.
This points to something worth considering for anyone thinking about where storage investment could be most geographically justified over the next few years.
Pomorskie's coverage ratio looks dramatic but most of it comes from over 3GW of offshore wind that has been allocated, not yet built.
Zachodniopomorskie at 99% looks almost balanced. In practice, near-parity likely means regular surplus during midday PV peaks already today and data seems to indirectly confirm it: the ENEA Operator territory accounted for the vast majority of national OSD-level PV curtailment in 2024. Not a projection.
The corridor worth watching is arguably the 30 to 99% range: regions like warmińsko-mazurskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, lubuskie and others, approaching the surplus threshold with RES fleets still growing.
If PSE 2040 local balancing logic plays out, first-mover BESS positioning here could potentially offer something the obvious bets do not: structural alignment between where storage sits and where the grid actually needs it.