Research and briefs.
Ongoing analysis of the Polish energy market, grouped into series where the story unfolds over time, and standalone pieces for one-off reads.
Introducing the Alignment Score series, a quantitative check of whether Poland's battery investment geography actually matches where the grid needs balancing.
BESS investments gravitate toward regions where development conditions are favourable, not toward regions where the grid actually needs balancing.
214% seems like the number to watch. 99% is more interesting right now, where storage investment could be most geographically justified over the next few years.
Investors hold 65% of all awarded capacity across just 43 projects out of 183 subsidised. The rest is scattered.
Investors submitted close to 10 GW and walked away with around 3 GW. The pattern of rejections tells its own story about grid alignment.
Megascale battery projects and small MV-connected projects both have their place in the Capacity Market. Looking at 2027–2030 delivery data, the top 17 projects out of 174 hold over half the contracted capacity.