Rational at the project level ≠ rational at the system level
Rational at the project level does not always mean rational at the system or portfolio level, and that may have implications.
The market elaborates on a shift from centrally managed dispatch to local balancing, with battery storage as the enabling infrastructure. The core question I set out to test: is planned BESS capacity actually going to the regions where the renewable surplus exists?
What the data shows is that BESS investments seem to gravitate toward regions where different development conditions are favourable, not toward regions where the grid requires it. The result is a concentration of storage capacity that is commercially rational at the project level but might be structurally misplaced from the perspective of the system it is meant to serve.
Mapping the misalignment
Plotting the alignment score on a map makes the spread visible: the highest scores cluster in a handful of voivodeships, while several regions with meaningful RES coverage sit near the bottom of the index.
Cross-referencing with the RES coverage ratio shows the other half of the picture, where renewable generation already meets a sizeable share of local demand, and where storage would have the most to balance.